BANGALORE—India’s reluctance to condemn the United States for its invasion of Iraq—though condemned by several within this country for being an unprincipled position—is expected to bring in some rewards. While Indian businessmen are eyeing the post-Saddam Hussein spoils, the government seems to be aiming higher. It is hoping to a play a more significant role in a restructured world order.
An official in the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told Asia
Times Online that while India is uncomfortable with US unilateralism
and the manner in which the United Nations has been all but
destroyed
, Delhi has crafted its approach towards the crisis
pragmatically rather than emotionally. We are keeping in mind the
long-term interests of the country. The government’s approach of
not condemning the US is to protect Indian business interests in the
region as well as to enhance its role in the emerging international
order,
he pointed out.
According to the official, with India making adjustments in its
approach to the ground reality
, Indian ministers and officials who
have been interacting with the Bush administration have been seeking
to sensitize the US to Delhi’s concerns
.
Topmost on India’s agenda are the contracts it has won in Iraq’s oil sector. Among them are the agreements signed by India’s Oil and Natural Gas Commission Videsh for exploration of oil in southern Iraq and to develop the Tuba oil field. This deal was signed last year. Now, with a change of regime looming large, Delhi does not want to be caught in a situation in which its interests are harmed.
India is keen to play a role in the reconstruction of post-war Iraq. There has been considerable speculation in the Indian media over whether the US has already promised India a share in the post- Saddam spoils.
Based on an interview with US ambassador to India Robert Blackwill,
the Times of India reported that the US is holding out to India the
carrot of a major role
in the post-war reconstruction of
Iraq. Both, the MEA and the US embassy in Delhi quickly denied the
report.
Sources in the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry
(FICCI) say that Indian businessmen in India as well as in the Gulf
are hoping for a share in the lucrative post-war reconstruction work
in Iraq. Anil Agarwal of the Indo-Iraq joint business council of the
FICCI says that while the big reconstruction work is sure to go to US
companies, the subcontracting would come to India
.
Indians in Kuwait believe that while American companies will take the
bigger contracts, the Indians stood a good chance with the smaller
contracts as they (the Indians) would be able to provide cheap labor
and had knowledge of the local business culture. It is estimated that
even these smaller contracts
would run into hundreds of millions
of dollars.
Unlike in Afghanistan where India’s ties with the Northern Alliance came in useful when it came to playing a role in the reconstruction, India cannot count on a similar advantage in post-war Iraq. Not only have its ties with the Saddam regime been good, but also it has not interacted closely with any of the opposition groups that could constitute the post-Saddam political dispensation in Iraq. And with the US likely to be determining who gets what in post-war Iraq, India is hoping that its ties with Washington will bring in the business contracts.
More important and less talked about is the opportunity that India
sees for itself in a re-structured world order. Writing in the weekly
news magazine India Today, Indrani Bagchi points out that India is
not unhappy with the international rule book being rewritten because
the previous system of an impenetrable Western alliance had given it
only a marginal voice %G–%@ in the nuclear order, in the UN, even
on terrorism. The cracking of the Western alliance may impel a
restructured UN with greater Indian clout, just as a weakened NATO may
increase its leverage.
Admitting that India did see a bigger global role for itself in a
restructured world order, the MEA official pointed out that it would
certainly help India to be on the winning side
. We are trying
to get what we can from what is, rather than keep lamenting over what
was or should be,
he added.
There are several concerns that cloud this rather optimistic outlook. One is the impact of the war on the price of oil and the fallout of that for the growth rate of the economy. Much will depend on the period over which the war extends. Another is the drying up of foreign exchange remittances should the large number of Indians working in the Gulf return home.
Then, Indian traders who have been exporting to Iraq since 1996 under the UN oil-for-food program face uncertainty over payments that are due to them for goods already shipped. There is a question mark, too, over outstanding orders. With the withdrawal of the UN from Iraq due to war, the oil-or- food program has been suspended.
Indian traders who have been exporting wheat to Iraq fear that post-war their old export contracts will be considered expired and under new contracts that will be signed up, American and Australian wheat exporters, who have been eyeing the Iraqi market, will replace them.
There is also concern that the US invasion of Iraq and the resentment it has prompted among Islamic populations will fuel jihadi activity and that India might suffer on this account. J N Dixit (a former Indian foreign secretary) points out that this is bound to increase terrorist activity in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. In an op-ed piece in the English daily, Indian Express, B Raman (retired additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat) draws attention to the possibility of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of anti-India terrorist groups.
Indian officials believe that the cautious approach
the
government has adopted towards the crisis should help it weather the
storm ahead. It is, after all, wiser to hold the hand of the one
steering the ship rather than hanging on to the one who is drowning.
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