German experts say invasion forces can not control Baghdad

By Khaled Schmitt, IOL Correspondent, 29 March 2003

BONN, March 29 (IslamOnline.net) - Military German experts ruled out victory for Anglo-American forces, saying it would be impossible for the U.S.-British invasion forces to occupy and secure Baghdad as long as the current unity and determination—between the Iraqi regime and people—goes on. They are expecting a bitter defeat should the invasion forces opt for attacking the Iraqi capital.

Participants in an emergency research session to assess the current invasion, organized by the Unit of Military studies and analyses—affiliated with Hamburg University - (AKUF), noted that the history of world wars never recorded one case of an invading army that managed to occupy and control a heavily-populated city—such as Baghdad.

According to German Magazine Tagesspiegel Friday, March 28, the German experts unanimously believed that the invasion forces had only two options to occupy and secure Baghdad or Basra; either to flatten them completely or besiege them until hunger played its toll on the people inside.

Pioneer of German military experts, Dr. Manfred Messer Schmidt, expected the U.S.-British invasion forces would lose the war as long as the Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein, remained in control of the country.

The prominent German expert considered it impossible for the invasion forces to control a city of million peoples unless they (invading forces) decided to flatten it and bring each and every building upside down.

Schmidt stressed that destroying Baghdad would hamper tanks and armored vehicles moving in the streets, leading to the inevitability of street fighting. This, he added, means unimaginable losses inflicted on the invading armies.

Bombing and attacks intensified, resulting in heavy civilian casualties

If they are extremely lucky, thev invading forces may manage to occupy some suburbs, Schmidt added, citing the bitter German experience of attacking and besieging Russian Leningrad for 900 days during WW II.

Entering Leningrad led to its complete destruction and severe human casualties on both sides, due to fierce street fighting, he stressed.

Schmidt, who up until 1995, was the head of the Central German Office for Military Studies in Freeburg, likened the situation of the invasion forces in Iraq to that of the German forces that invaded Russia during WW II, seen as the beginning of the defeat.

For his part, Dr. Gerd Krumeich, Head of the Military Studies Unit in Dosledurf University, played down the technological superiority of the invasion forces, arguing that it will not do them any good once street fighting erupts.

The U.S.-British military planners miscalculated the whole situation when they assumed the Iraqis would welcome them with roses. Definitely, the current unity and integrity between the leadership and citizens in Iraq was not taken into consideration, Krumeich said.

He expected the harmony and closeness in Iraq would grow as the bombing and attacks of the invading forces intensified.

The AKUF is the most prominent and respectable center in analyzing and studying regional and international wars and conflicts in all continents.