Election Fever Hits Russia

By Sergei Blagov, InterPress Service, 11 January 2000

MOSCOW, Jan 11 (IPS)—As Russia's presidential election campaign unfolds, question remains whether the almost imminent winner, acting Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, has the vision to tackle the country's mess.

Russia's presidential race officially commenced Jan 6 and the vote is scheduled for Mar 26. All candidates must be registered before Feb 13. In case none of the contenders gets 51 percent of the votes, the run-off will be held on Apr 16.

Apart from Putin, several politicians announced they would run in the election, including Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, who came in second to Boris Yeltsin in the second round in 1996, Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the liberal Yabloko party, and ultra- nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

Only former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov is yet to confirm his presidential bid. However, acting president Putin's victory in the coming presidential elections appears as inevitable as a sunrise. Yeltsin's stunning resignation, on Jan 1, was seen as timed to ensure that Putin's popularity does not evaporate by the time elections, originally scheduled for June, are held.

Putin, Yeltsin's hand-picked successor, is highly popular, boosted by public approval of the war in Chechnya. He also begins the abbreviated race with the advantages of incumbency. Putin conceded that by resigning and leaving him acting president, Yeltsin had given him a “head start” in the campaign.

Russia's atomized opposition would have to present a united front to challenge Putin, and such a scenario appears increasingly unlikely. Recent anti-Kremlin alliances are falling apart, and former Yeltsin's foes are dropping like flies—presumably believing they would not win anything for backing the wrong horse in the presidential race.

Forever-in-opposition Yavlinsky said he doubted anyone could beat Putin, and that he might be willing to serve as prime minister under a Putin presidency.

All Russia, a group of regional leaders that had previously teamed up with anti-Kremlin alliance of Primakov, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, and his Fatherland party, announced they would support Putin's candidacy. All Russia's decision to support Putin was sparked by the recent political “changes”, All Russia leader Oleg Morozov argued.

He also said Russian society must be “consolidated” - presumably under Putin.

Even Fatherland, once the Kremlin's main foe, now does not exclude rallying to Putin. Thus Russian politicians easily liberated themselves from their recent opposition pronouncements, apparently preferring catering to the mighty.

The presidential race is also likely to be about personalities, not issues. In the West, Yeltsin's move has been seen in line with the constitution, paving the way for Russia's first-ever peaceful, lawful change of power from one living leader to another. The expected six-month period of uncertainty between parliamentary and presidential elections has also been halved to Yeltsin's departure.

However, many Russian analysts described the transfer of power to Putin as amounting to a hijacking of democracy, an appointment of the heir to the throne, labeling Russia's political regime as “Hereditary Democracy”.

They warn that Russia's immature democracy drifts towards becoming a Soviet-style exercise in voting for a pre-selected victor.

Yeltsin, Putin and others are stressing the constitutionality of this transfer of power. Putin also warned that he would “decisively crush” anyone who did not obey the constitution - which was drafted in 1993 specifically to serve Yeltsin's authoritarian tastes.

Critics have said Russia needs a new constitutional arrangement that will cut dependence on president and his power of decree and shift authority to parliament. That would limit the ability of one powerful individual to wield influence over the economy.

Nonetheless, Putin has made it clear he opposes any constitutional amendments. Now Putin's loyalists herald him as a no-nonsense, can-do leader who is yet to be smeared by graft allegations. As prime minister, Putin warned officials that he would not tolerate corruption, but no action followed.

Furthermore, for five years Putin served as deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, Russia's second city now nicknamed as the country's “crime capital”. However, the questions whether Putin could be tainted by countless of the corruption allegations leveled at the St. Petersburg mayor's office is yet to be raised—let alone answered—by Russian politicians and media.

Putin's granting Yeltsin—and his family as well - unconditional legal immunity from criminal prosecution on his way out the Kremlin door, also raises more questions than gives answers.

Putin did nothing about some recent corporate scandals. As prime minister, his only legacy has been a drive to tackle truly awful situation in Chechnya as an excuse to wage a war, that destroys cities and punishes civilians in the name of protecting them.

Putin's predecessor, former Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin say he will not be a strongman like Chile's Augusto Pinochet, and also reassuring that he is not planning to declare a state of emergency. In contrast, Putin is yet to distance himself from Pinochet's image and methods—yet another ominous sign for Russia's democracy.

Anyone who thinks that presidency will be a cakewalk for Putin should look at what he is going to inherit from Yeltsin. Russia's various attempts at reform have resulted in a poorly-governed, corrupt and economically backward country, according to a report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, ’Transition Report 1999’.

The reforms were hijacked by self-serving individuals and the consequences have been disastrous—Russia ended up with the worst of both worlds, removing state controls but failing to institute and enforce clear regulations to take their place, the EBRD said.

Putin has said he will pursue reform, although he has stressed that it must be implemented at a slower pace and with close state control.

Russia's president-in-the-waiting is yet to come up with more detailed programme. But it has become de rigeur to support state control and to hold forth against graft. Former Prime Minister Primakov also used to advocate an economy regulated by the state but free from corruption and crime.

Furthermore, all these state-control and anti-graft pronouncements have appeared to lack substance, thus being no panacea for Russia's woes.

It remains to be seen whether Putin's charisma of the office will be sustained long enough to ensure a landslide. But Russia's new president will definitely need clearer vision—not just can- do attitude—to deal with the country's woes.